Below are the maps of temperature and precipitation anomaly predictions of 18 different seasonal weather prediction systems for the region surrounding the United States. The official NOAA seasonal forecasts are also shown.
The seasonal prediction systems used include ECMWF, NCEP CFS, UK Met Office, JMA, International Research Institute(IRI) for Climate and Society,Columbia University, North American Multi-Model Ensemble Project (NMME), NASA_GEOS5v2, NCAR_
Generally most of the seasonal prediction systems predict above average temperatures over the Western United States, average temps over the Northeastern United States,some predict below average temps over Northeastern United States, ECMWF especially in January, Accuweather especially in February, Weathertrends 360 especially in January and also the Farmer's Almanac but not the Old Farmer's Almanac.
WeatherTrends360 , Farmer's Almanac and Old Farmer's Almanac do not use general circulation models(GCM).
Accuweather do not release their methods for producing long range forecasts but have been controversial. Apparently WeatherTrends360 makes some use of Bayseian statistics.
Images:
NOAA Official seasonal forecast
ECMWF:
Met Office:
JMA:
Weathertrends 360:
Farmers' Almanac:
Old Farmer's Almanac:
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Saturday, 29 December 2018
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